The John Griff Column: When a change…

Will there be a Bre-turn before very much longer? Social media has been full of it - with both sides of the argument - in the past few weeks. Ever was it going to be thus from the moment the government began to drip feed the notion of Great Britain drawing closer again - in some degree - to her mainland Europe neighbours. But is this all subterfuge aimed at testing in advance the resolve of the nation to get stuck into the arguments around what went before, in 2016?

The pros are obvious, not least in terms of the relationship we currently enjoy with those on the other side of the Atlantic (by which I do not mean Canada). The cons are no less clear, with the biggest presumably being the same as what drove the whole Brexit argument in the first place. Some might say that our withdrawal has proved to be a colossal mistake which has put back the standing and reputation of the country more than anyone could have imagined. Others might say that it was proved to be utterly the right thing to do - whichever it is, I’m sure both sides would agree that what we have now has come at great cost and in a myriad of ways. So at what further cost might come an EU return - in any degree? What guarantees would Britain have to offer that we wouldn’t turn on our heels again at some point? What penalty price might be applied to a nation which is already labouring under the immense and rising costs of living? What say would Britain have in the future direction of the EU, and what would she have to put into defence against a perceived - or actual - threat of aggression from elsewhere? Would GB be seen as a full player once more, or one needing to earn her spurs before being allowed anywhere near the top table?

At the risk of seeming assumptive, Europe needs Great Britain, her strategic planning, her defence intelligence and what is still, by anybody’s reckoning, her substantial wealth. A number of the current EU nations are experiencing domestic problems, not least the two major countries that prop up the EU in France and Germany. Others are considerable beneficiaries from EU coffers and presumably would view our return positively as a result. When Brexit took place there were those who forecast that the EU would collapse if Britain prospered from her own, democratically determined exile from the bloc. In the event neither thing happened and we have the current status quo. But is it a stable and fraternal one?

From time to time we see demonstrations of collaboration and positivity - the current visit of the Kent-created Bayeaux Tapestry is hardly a matter of substance, but it is a small, highly visible step. Is it a meaningful step along a path? Perhaps - but many more steps along the same path will be needed to pave the way for substance to be established. Likewise with the other EU states. But I’m getting ahead of myself. What does the nation HERE think, rather than the voices of the anonymous (and potentially misleading) many on social media? Some have said that a referendum might not be needed if a return in some form were to be included in a party manifesto before the next general election. However it was (or might yet be) packaged, the nation would probably need far greater clarity about what it was/is voting for than was the case last time. Doomscrolling and fearmongering notwithstanding, there needs to be crystal clarity from the outset. Once bitten, twice shy.

Lois and I were in Spain on the 23rd of June 2016 - on the 24th we watched and listened for a reaction from the indigenous community, but there was a complete lack of one. This amazed us because we were close to the ex-pat community and they certainly had something to say about it. In the past few weeks I have seen plenty of hopes expressed by ex-pats in particular that GB might become part of the EU again - PDQ. What are the pros and cons of a Bre-union a decade on? To what extent might we be asked to consider drawing closer than the 21 miles of the Strait of Dover? Do we collectively have the stomach for everything that Westminster's College Green witnessed daily all over again? Maybe outside Number 10 North in Manchester this time?

Either way, it looks like the battle lines might be established again. Will Boris’s Big Bus become Burnham’s Big Bus, Kemi’s Combi-wagon, Ed’s Express or Nigel’s Narrowboat? Batten down the hatches - things could be about to get stormy again - and I don’t just mean at Border Control or the Met Office.