Christmas Number 1: Who is the favourite to win this year's race, and when will it be announced?

• The countdown to Christmas begins, with less than 100 days to go until the announcement of this year’s Christmas number one single.
• Early contenders this year include Oasis, after the mammoth interest after their reunion announcement, and Sabrina Carpenter.
• So who are the early favourites to take the mantle in this year’s Christmas number one race?

It’s less than 100 days to go until Christmas, with many hoping that tickets to one of a number of big gigs coming to the UK in 2025 appear in their stocking.

As many of us frantically look at the calendar to work out how many more shopping days are left until Christmas, there are already some early suggestions as to who will conquer the chart this year.

With Wham! taking the mantle from LadBaby after his five year reign over the festival holidays last christmas (pun intended), after the YouTuber announced in 2023 that he would no longer be releasing a Christmas single, many are suggesting that Oasis could be this year’s chart-topper.

The group, who announced in August their long-awaited reunion and subsequent shows taking place in 2025, have already had chart success as Definitely Maybe made its way back to the top of the album chart earlier this month.

Is that an indication that Champagne Supernova or Live Forever, the latter already entering the UK top 10 again, could be a worthwhile flutter for this year’s number one single? Or could Ed Sheeran, as he has revealed he’s set to pen a song for an upcoming festive film, That Christmas?

OLBG undertook some research ahead of the bookmakers giving their official betting odds, owing to it still being a while before the festival season truly begins, to get an idea who could top the UK singles chart this Christmas.

Who is the early favourite to earn the 2025 Christmas Number 1?

Not Oasis, according to OLBG’s findings.

Instead, they believe that Wham! are set for back-to-back Christmas number ones with Last Christmas the overwhelming favourite at 1/1, with a 50% probability that it could happen. Oasis then follow with odds of 3/1, while the overwhelmingly popularity of Sabrina Carpenter has led to OLBG giving her odds of 4/1.

Always a popular Christmas tradition, whoever provides the music to this year’s John Lewis advert is also considered a favourite, with odds of 8/1 owing to just how monumental a moment it is each year once the advert is released.

YouTubers Sidemen are also touted as one of the favourites to be the Christmas number one this year too, after coming so close with Christmas Drillings during the 2002 race.

When will this year’s Christmas number 1 be announced?

This year’s Christmas number one will be revealed on the official UK Charts Show, broadcast on BBC Radio 1 on December 22 2025 from 4pm.

Do you think Wham! will top the UK singles chart again this year, or are you hoping for a Champagne Supernova of a chart battle this season? Let us know your predictions by leaving a comment down below.