Northampton Saints v Bristol Bears: Big match preview

Competition: Gallagher Premiership (round two)

Venue: cinch Stadium at Franklin’s Gardens, Northampton

Date and kick-off time: Saturday, October 21, 2023, 3pm

Weather forecast: 14c, showers

Live television coverage: PRTV

Referee: Craig Maxwell-Keys

Assistant referees: Andrew Jackson, James Clarke

No.4: Callum Howard

TMO: Rowan Kitt

Saints: Hendy; Seabrook, Freeman, Hutchinson, Ramm; F Smith, James; E Waller, Langdon, Davison; Moon, Coles; Scott-Young, Pearson, Graham (c).

Replacements: R Smith, A Waller, Millar Mills, Lockett, Munga, McParland, Grayson, Litchfield.

Bristol Bears: Lane; Heward, Vakatawa, van Rensburg, Ibitoye; Sheedy, Randall; Woolmore, Thacker, Lahiff; Dun, Batley; Harding (c), Thomas, Bradbury.

Replacements: Capon, Grahamslaw, Kloska, Caulfield, Heenan, Marmion, Williams, O’Connor.

Not considered for Saints selection: Juarno Augustus, Callum Braley, Fraser Dingwall, George Furbank, Emmanuel Iyogun, Tarek Haffar, Temo Mayanavanua, Beltus Nonleh, Burger Odendaal, Kayde Sylvester.

International duty: Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam, Alex Mitchell

Most recent meeting: Saturday, September 23, 2023: Bristol Bears 39 Saints 38 (Premiership Rugby Cup)

Saints director of rugby Phil Dowson: "They're very good and they've started the season very well. We played them in the Premiership Rugby Cup and we played well but didn't get the win away from home, which was frustrating. They're a good side, loads of quality and they're trying to make a big statement at the start of this season."

Bristol Bears director of rugby Pat Lam: “The thing I was most pleased about in the Leicester game (which Bristol won 25-14 last Friday) was that everyone was disciplined enough to do their job and execute our plan that we had. We have a plan for Northampton and we're going to need the same. The emotional investment to be prepared, ready to go and channel all the excitement to put our best into our jobs - that's what we need. They (Saints) pose different threats to Leicester and we believe we have a plan to deal with that and we have a system to deal with that, but we've got to get it right mentally."

Oval Insights stats: Saints: Tom James made more kicks in play than any other player in Round 1, a total of 18. Last season, Saints' scrum-halves made 65.6 per cent of their kicks in play; Saints scored a league-high average of 4.1 tries per 80 minutes last season. However, they also conceded more tries per 80 minutes than any other team (4.3); In the Premiership Rugby Cup this season, George Hendy has made more metres than any other player (412) and has also made 10 clean breaks – just one shy of the leader in the competition; The Saints made more carries in Round 1 than any other team (165). Last season they averaged the second-most carries per 80 minutes (128). Bristol Bears: Last season, Bristol Bears averaged the fewest kicks in play per 80 minutes (22.3). However, in Round 1 they made more kicks in play (47) and kick metres (1,272) than any other team; Outstanding on both sides of the ball, Gabriel Ibitoye scored two tries, beat six defenders, maintained a 100 per cent tackle success rate, and won two turnovers; Bristol Bears had the best rate of gainline success in the league last season (46.3 per cent). They averaged 3.7 metres per carry – second only to Saints. However, in Round 1 this season, they made fewer metres than any other team (284); Despite averaging a league-high 13.2 offloads per 80 minutes last season, the Bears made the fewest offloads in Round 1 (four).

Tom Vickers’ prediction: Saints came so close to a precious away win last weekend but they couldn’t quite get the job done and now they really need to get up and running at home. Bristol will pose plenty of threats, as they always do, but the black, green and gold have the talent to score tries of their own and they will be desperate to maintain the physicality that served them so well at times at Sale last Sunday. Saints 32 Bristol Bears 20.