Where EFL experts think Cobblers will finish in 2026/27

Making predictions before a ball has even been kicked is a fool’s game (though that didn’t stop me), so there’s little point getting too worked up about them. Let’s face it, at this stage, it’s all conjecture. Only in the weeks and months to come will things become clear.

Nonetheless, it’s interesting to read and listen to the views of different EFL observers...

A double drop?!

First, the bad news. George and Ali from the excellent Not The Top 20 podcast fear Northampton will be a non-league team come the 2027/28 season, predicting a 23rd place finish, above only Accrington Stanley and below Newport County.

“In the last four seasons, 16 teams have been relegated from League One to League Two and half have finished in the bottom eight and a quarter have finished in the bottom four,” says Ali (listen to the full episode here). “It’s more normal for teams to be relegated and drop into the bottom half, and in some cases fight relegation, than win promotion.

“In 23rd place we have Northampton Town. This would be a double relegation. They finished bottom of League One with 35 points in 46 games and a -35 goal difference. They won one of their last 26 league games and took a single point from their last 15 league matches, losing each of their last 11. They were such a bad League One team and those teams consistently struggle in League Two.”

Top half?

In somewhat happier news though, long-time EFL expert Gab Sutton believes a top half finish might be on the cards, predicting an 11th place finish.

Writing for Bet365, he says: “The good news is that new boss Chris Hogg arrives with fantastic coaching pedigree. The 41-year-old might be a number one for the first time but, crucially, he has ample experience of coaching in a first-team environment, and has been heavily credited for his role in Liam Manning’s successes at MK Dons (first season), Oxford and Bristol City.

“If Hogg lives up to his billing, a top half finish looks likely, but where within it depends on the status of the squad come September. On the one hand, Teyn have talent, in highly-rated goalkeeper Zack Jeacock, on loan from Lincoln, attacking midfielder Logan Briggs, a PL2 POTY nominee, on loan from Leicester, and striker Matty Warhurst, poached from Man City EDS. They’ve also added a cultural architect in 32-year-old full-back Janoi Donacien, who brings higher level nous and professionalism, as well as valuable versatility.

“17 players who were part of last season’s capitulation, however, remain at Sixfields, so it may be difficult for Hogg to implement everything he wants to in his first season.

“Next summer, the Cobblers will have most of the aforementioned 17 out of contract, and probably new owners in from the outset, both of which should make the squad-building process much simpler: promotion could be a two-year job.”

Play-off push? Title outsiders?!

Other predictions include 8th from betting tipster Alan Dudman, 9th from Ryan Deeney (who runs National League Notebook), and 11th from Sporting Life journalist Tom Carnduff, who perhaps comes out with the most accurate line: “They feel like a club who may need a season to stabilise before going for promotion the next and that's no bad thing.”

But the most eye-catching call of all has been made by former BBC Radio Northampton reporter Joe Townsend, who believes Cobblers are an outside shot for the title. “They have done sensible summer business by bringing in some good EFL experience to replace what they have lost, and at the prices are worth backing to continue the relative success of the past decade,” writes Joe in his Sporting Life column.

So, overall, the predictions are: 8th, 9th, 11th (x2), and 23rd, with a title shout thrown in there.

As for the bookies, a promotion challenge is generally seen as twice as likely than a relegation battle. You can get around 25/1 for the title, 5/1 for promotion and 14/1 for relegation.