Confirmation of Kevin Nolan’s departure may have come on Monday afternoon but the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.

Rewind to Christmas Day and Cobblers were sitting 12th in League One with 27 points from 20 games. Fans were happy, players were in form and it was all rosy. And then everything went wrong.

A disastrous Boxing Day defeat at Burton Albion – where Town shipped five goals in a calamitous defensive performance – triggered a dramatic and prolonged collapse in form that ultimately cost Nolan his job. No manager can expect to survive a run of one win in 16 games and Sunday’s loss at Wimbledon proved the final straw.

So what went so catastrophically wrong? Here are six reasons that contributed to Nolan’s demise...

1. Recruitment. This, for many (including myself), is the overwhelming reason for why Cobblers are starring down the barrel of League Two. Not so much in the summer – although they were at least one forward player light – but more so in January. Town entered 2026 in a reasonable position. They were 19th and earned respectable 0-0 draws against Stockport and Bolton and had a favourable run of fixtures on the horizon. However, even before Ethan Wheatley's surprise recall, the general consensus was that Cobblers needed at least one out-and-out striker. They were the second lowest scorers in League One and desperately needed more firepower. Nolan knew it and pretty much said as much. The club’s failure to replace Wheatley, let alone sign an additional forward player, regardless of the reasons, left them desperately short up front and so it has proven. Tom Eaves has done well to reach 10 goals across all competitions but no one else has more than five in the league.

2. Misfiring attack. Whilst Cobblers do lack individual quality and depth across the front-line, they should still be getting more out of their current forward players. Only basement boys Port Vale have scored fewer goals and all the underlying metrics reflect one of the poorest attacks in the division. They rank 24th for non-penalty xG (expected goals) created, 24th for shots on target, 24th for shots and 21st for shot conversion. They also sit bottom for short passes per game and pass success rate. And then there’s the most damning stat of all – according to Opta, Cobblers have scored just 10 open play goals all season long. That’s 10 goals in 36 games. Needless to say, it’s the lowest figure in the whole of the EFL.

3. Identity crisis. This follows on from the previous point. Watching the team play, you are never quite sure how they are going to create chances and score goals, outside of set-pieces (and even those have become increasingly ineffective). There is no clear method or style of play. The energy and pressing that was a hallmark of Nolan's Cobblers towards the end of last season completely disappeared. It was a bit muddled and confused and subsequently it became a very difficult watch.

4. Defensive decline. Cobblers started the season as a very good defensive team. They were top of League One for clean sheets a quarter of the way through the campaign and the underlying numbers backed it up. But it has fallen apart since that disastrous day at Burton. They've conceded 27 goals in 16 games since Christmas Day, the 2nd most in the division in that time. You can get away with a misfiring attack if you are keeping it tight at the back but it is a recipe for disaster when you are can’t score and you can't stop conceding.

5. Tactical inflexibility. A particular bugbear among supporters. Stubbornness is a trait found in all successful managers. Different coaches see the game in different ways and all have their preferred styles and systems. For Nolan at Cobblers, he was committed to a three-at-the-back shape and understandably so after it helped secure League One survival last season. Playing 3-5-2, or 3-4-3, can bring success at this level but it clearly was not working and Nolan took too long to change it. Going to 4-2-3-1 is not a magic fix but it was surely worth a try earlier in the season.

6. Schedule. This is something out of Nolan and the club’s control and it's a little unfortunate that the fixture list worked out the way it did. To play six midweek games in a row is asking a lot, especially when five of them are away from home. Mistimed injuries to Tyrese Fornah and Cameron McGeehan meant the likes of Terry Taylor and Dean Campbell have been run into the ground. Campbell’s played every minute of every league game in 2026 while you have to go back to August for the last time Taylor did not start a league match. The duo look jaded and fatigued and they are not the only ones. Whilst Nolan tried to rotate and keep playing fresh, the lack of rest and time on the training ground was a significant hindrance.