COMMENT: Ignore the knee-jerk reactions, this is not the time for Cobblers to panic

Three successive league defeats - and four in all competitions - is a sure-fire way to get the alarm bells ringing and social media was predictably awash with knee-jerk reactions in the hours after this sickening defeat in the West Midlands.

But the dust has now settled and some context is required as we delve into what has gone so badly awry for the Cobblers, whose promotion challenge is threatening to derail at just the wrong time.

It seems a modern day obsession that there always needs to be a reason behind everything that happens, that there's always someone to blame when something goes wrong. It's the manager's fault for making a certain decision or the players' fault for not being mentally strong enough.

But, sometimes, you cannot legislate for the gloriously random and frustratingly unpredictable nature of football. That's one of the beauties of our great sport. There doesn't have to be any rhyme or reason behind the mayhem, not all the time.

Of course, this is not to absolve Cobblers of the blame following what was a horror second-half at the Bescot Stadium on Saturday.

Town have suffered more embarrassing beatings and lost games by bigger margins this season but no defeat, not even the Boxing Day nightmare at Crawley Town, can match this one for sheer frustration.

So good for 45 minutes, Cobblers conspired to turn a two-goal lead into a disastrous defeat thanks to a combination of erratic finishing at one end and poor defending at the other, wasting all the good work done in the first 45 minutes and slipping outside the play-offs in the process.

There were valid criticisms of the manager's substitutions and fair questions about the players' mental focus given it was the fourth time they've let slip a 2-0 lead this season. Perhaps Keith Curle should have swapped Nicky Adams for Mark Marshall instead of withdrawing the excellent Callum Morton, while Charlie Goode or David Cornell should definitely have dealt with Danny Guthrie's free-kick.

Players were criticised but the brunt of the flak was left for the manager. Some, remarkably, were even calling him to be sacked, a quite staggering position to take considering how far the club have progressed - on and off the field - during his 18 months at the helm.

They were free-falling towards the League Two relegation zone when Curle took over from Dean Austin. Now they find themselves with a refreshed and rejuvenated squad - assembled on a reduced budget - and in contention for promotion heading for the last throes of the season, not to mention the money-spinning FA Cup run.

By all means, save your assessment until May but right now seems an incredibly premature and unnecessary moment to make such bold statements.

And if you go down that road, it has to work the other way too and this is where inconsistency comes into play. Criticise the manager for his substitutions when they fail, sure, but then also praise him when they come off, like when Curle sent on Harry Smith at both Stevenage and Mansfield, rescuing four points from those two games.

His tactical half-time tweak at Carlisle also turned a dour 0-0 into a comfortable 2-0 victory while Andy Williams came off the bench to grab a late winner against Stevenage.

It feels as if criticism, even when deserved, regularly outweighs praise.

There's also been suggestions that Cobblers' recent downturn in form has been a case of their luck running out but again this would be deeply unfair on the manager and his players. You can't point solely to luck when they win and then lay all the blame on their shoulders when they lose.

And let's face it, it's not as if they've been outplayed or thoroughly beaten during this poor run. Sometimes, football has a curious way of evening things out.

There have been games this season, such as the supposedly convincing wins over Crewe and Morecambe, that were tight affairs and could easily have gone the other way but didn't. The same also applies to all three defeats during this past week.

Eight times out of 10 the Cobblers beat Port Vale last weekend, or at least don't lose, and even against Swindon on Tuesday, when admittedly far from their best, they were 12 minutes from taking a point off the league leaders. As usual, though, results skew perceptions in football.

Then comes what might prove to be a watershed moment in their season. For 45 minutes at Walsall on Saturday, Town were about as dangerous going forward as they have been for some time.

They led by two goals and could have had more. Even when the conditions were against them in the second-half, and Walsall pulled one back, chances were there to win the game comfortably. On another day, Morton grabs his hat-trick, Cobblers go home with all three points (that's not to blame Morton, who was excellent) and there's no questions asked.

But it wasn't to be and Rory Holden's last-gasp winner rubbed salt into the wounds after Danny Guthrie and Josh Gordon earlier wiped out the deficit. Cobblers made mistakes, the manager took the flak but in reality it was another tight defeat in a game they could easily have won, whatever substitutions or tactical decisions were made.

They didn't lose because of a substitution and they didn't lose because of mental fragility, they lost because they missed two good chances, failed to defend a free-kick properly and then sloppily conceded possession on halfway. Sometimes, it really is as simple as that.

It's immensely frustrating, especially in the context of the last week, and could well prove a costly defeat, but it is not the be all and end all. One good result against second-placed Exeter on Saturday would immediately lift spirits.

There are legitimate grumblings over the style of football - everyone has a different preference, after all - and fans are well within their rights to always want more and expect better. That's part of being a football supporter.

It's equally understandable that emotions run high after such a galling defeat and knee-jerk reactions are inevitable but some perspective is now needed. The team are eighth, they are outside the play-offs on goal difference only - a stark improvement on last season - and there are still 13 games remaining with everything to play for.

No-one is entitled to promotion. It has to be earned and teams, no matter how successful, will always have blips.

Cobblers must just keep calm and carry on. What happens next will likely define Curle's reign at the club.