ANALYSIS: Is Cobblers' superb defensive record enough to take them over the promotion line?

Sir Alex Ferguson once said that 'attack wins you games, defence wins you titles'. Cobblers will not be winning the league this season - unless something catastrophic happens to runaway leaders Forest Green Rovers - but replace 'title' with 'promotion' and it is a theory they are putting to the test.

Northampton's defensive record this season is up there with the best in the country. They have 15 clean sheets in 30 games – the third most in the top four divisions – and if you take out the freak defeat at Swindon, where Jon Brady’s COVID-affected players lost 5-2, they have shipped 20 goals in 29 games, the best record in League Two.

But as another game ticked by without a goal from open play at Port Vale on Saturday - their sixth in succession - is that superb record enough to take them over the promotion line?

Going back over the last 10 completed seasons, the teams who registered the best attacking numbers averaged a final finishing positioning of 3.4 in League Two. Eight of those 10 sides won automatic promotion. The teams with the best defences averaged a slightly higher finish of 3.1, although only six of the 10 claimed a top three spot.

The difference is negligible. Ultimately, if you do one aspect of the game really well, whether you're miserly at the back or free-scoring in attack, you will give yourself every chance of winning promotion.

And there can be no doubt Northampton are a well-organised, hard-working and disciplined team, as three clean sheets in a row and five in the last six games demonstrates, the latest of which came at Vale Park on Saturday.

That made it 15 for the campaign, bringing the club's record of 23 in a single season, set by Colin Calderwood's promotion winners in 2005/06, well within reach.

“I thought we looked really strong and solid defensively again (against Port Vale) and we are very, very good in those moments where we need to stand up,” said manager Jon Brady.

“They are a real strong physical side and they had a few shots from distance but that was about it. We limited them not a single clear-cut chance.”

When you dig down into the stats, it’s striking how strong Northampton are in the first-half in particular.

In 30 league games this season, they have let in only six first-half goals and are yet to concede at all in the opening 15 minutes of a game.

“I don’t necessarily think that’s a conscious effort, it’s more an attitude thing where we want to start every game well,” Brady added.

“We work defensively and offensively and we feel strong all over the pitch.

“We work front to back and not back to front – it’s a team effort."

The flip side to all of this, of course, is Town’s struggles at the other end of the pitch.

They have 35 goals from their 30 games and have not scored from open play since Mitch Pinnock’s dramatic stoppage-time leveller against Forest Green Rovers seven matches ago. Only Tranmere Rovers, who are actually above them in the table, have netted fewer goals in the top half.

At Vale Park on Saturday, Cobblers saw plenty of the ball and worked some promising positions but lacked the penetration and composure in the final third to create clear-cut opportunities.

“It’s just about choosing the right options,” said Brady. “There were a lot of occasions offensively where I felt we could have chosen better options.

“Instead of forcing the pass, we could retain the ball and then find a way to penetrate.

“Of course it would be nice to win a game 2-0 or 3-0 but I have said all along that this league is really tough and the margins are so fine.

“I feel everyone is quite evenly-matched so it’s about finding that little bit extra to get a result.”

Town’s defensive excellence may yet be enough to win automatic promotion by itself but an increase in their goal output, even by just a small amount, would make a world of difference.

“We have to keep working at it and keep improving and got to try and be better and that’s the same for our overall game,” Brady continued.

“There are things being made of it and people keep highlighting it but we all know within our group that we want to be better in those offensive areas and we will try and be better in those areas.

“A lot of the time it comes down to decision-making. You can have clear ideas in how you’re going to do it but it’s also about decision-making from individuals and that certainly needs to be better and the quality needs to be better as well.

“We’re working on it and we will keep trying, but I think it shows how far we have come because we came away from Port Vale with a good point but still felt disappointed not to have played at our best offensively.

“That shows we’re wanting more and we’re in a position where we can say to ourselves ‘we can be better’."