The John Griff Column: When it’s good to plan ahead…

Various commentators have said so – but if it’s the reality, will it be more nuanced and less hysterical? Where and when will it end? And could the actions of the combatants have positive results, albeit unexpected ones?

On the face of it, it’s a preposterous concept. But look again. Despite fears of a global recession looming – or at least one for America - stock markets started to recover on Tuesday.

A trade war with China looks to have started already as both countries vowed not to step down against economic aggression from the other. Donald Trump’s preparedness to impose trade tariffs of 104% on some Chinese goods is bellicose, but it is the kind of thing we have seen from him in the past.

Making changes in the way the US does business by means of Executive Order – and seemingly ONLY Executive Order – looks like a dictatorial POTUS bypassing all other offices in government. It might play well to Trump supporters, but if `the United States truly is the only remaining superpower it is also a huge target to aim at – and not just militarily. What’s more, the Billionaire Boys Club is not restricted to America alone – there are plenty of similarly wealthy individuals on this side of the pond.

Cracks in the 47th President’s administration have begun to appear, not least between Mr Trump and Elon Musk who is stepping away from the West Wing. Will he remain a vocal supporter of the current administration, will he go silent, or might he start to become a vocal opponent, given what has happened to his Tesla car company in the recent past, and the costs that it will incur from Trump’s international trade tariff hikes? We’re in an age of diplomacy played out along the bottom line, as Messrs Trump, Putin and Xi know only too well.

So where are the potential benefits from the current morass which we are all subject to? The world’s markets all tumbled over the weekend – and continued to do so into the start of the week. But since then they have begun to rally once more and head in the right direction. Why? Where is the positivity for investors coming from? It appears not to be in US stocks – so are businesses beginning to find new markets and trade away from the tariffs?

Britain has always been at the forefront of the financial markets, with London sitting right on the Prime Meridian. Much of the world’s trade goes through British trading floors and a lot of money is made because of time differences and trading hours in different global markets, particularly over the nighttime period, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer knows well. Maybe innovative companies and markets are already moving to isolate the effects of the Sharpie.

There’s more, too. During the pandemic, society changed. We pivoted to change the way we shop, buying goods in advance of shortages and living on lesser amounts.

The government moved to make sure we were less dependent on Russia for the nation’s energy and through the era of austerity, we rode it out. We can do it again too – for some time people have held onto their cars instead of changing them for the latest model. We’ve taken thrifty cookery lessons from the likes of Jamie Oliver – and we’ve learned to take pleasure from exercise. These are all tariff busting activities. And who will be paying the higher prices for goods imported into America from outside? Americans.

Over the weekend there were huge demonstrations against the current administration in a variety of US cities and for a man as driven by the optics of publicity as he appears to be, Mr Trump might well have struggled with his tee shots as he played golf. That public image could be in some jeopardy on an international level too – how many and which countries will be rushing to kiss the ring by inviting the current President and his wife over for a state visit anytime soon? Consider the welcome that Greenlanders were preparing to give Vice President JD Vance and his own wife. That example might be replicated elsewhere.

It is going to be a rocky ride in the short and medium term. But just as was the case with the pandemic, the world always recovers. There is plenty to be optimistic about, even if the ‘rebalancing’ of the world’s economy looks a way off. For now we should be being kind to each other, thinking ahead and looking for a silver lining. Some time ago I started buying clothes in multiples. I don’t drive a new car, or a leased one. I’m good with using leftovers in the kitchen. I stick to my lane.

It'll be alright.