Recruitment crisis looms for Northampton economy as job market growth and declining workforce collide

There will be a ‘bitter sweet’ increase in job opportunities across the Northampton economy by 2028, according to new forecasts by leading education, skills and employability provider Novus.

Using latest labour market insights, Novus has projected a 3% increase in job roles by 2028, with the creation of over 5,000 new positions across the region.

However, in the same period the number of people reaching retirement age will grow by 12% leading to an overall net decrease in the working age population meaning that employers are likely to face a recruitment crisis. This challenge is likely to lead to employers struggling to replace staff and recruit to new the new roles that will be crucial to boosting the economic fortunes of the region.

Novus, which recently started delivering education and training at HMP Five Wells in Northamptonshire, has identified the high-growth sectors that will shape the future employment market. These include:

· Health and Social Care

· Transport and storage

· Construction

· Administration and Support Services

· Public Administration

Novus Managing Director Peter Cox commented: “At HMP Five Wells Novus works with people who are in custody and are the furthest from the labour market but have the potential to be rehabilitated by acquiring the skills required to secure stable employment upon completion of their sentence.

“With the pressures facing the Northampton labour market it is crucial that, as the region’s political leaders look at their skills and economic growth strategies, the provision of prison education programmes which reduce reoffending and support offenders to address skills gaps in the local economy upon release are not overlooked.

“This will require integration and collaboration between prison education programmes and local skills improvement plans to ensure that as many employers as possible are able to recruit the skilled workers that they will require to economic success.”

In addition to the high growth sectors that Novus analysis highlighted, the research also identified the electricity, gas and air conditioning supply, Information and Communication, agriculture, construction and transportation and storage sectors as those with some of the highest wages per worker across the region.

Cox continued: “The outlook for Northampton’s job market suggests that there will be lots of ‘high skill, high wage’ career opportunities within the local economy created over the next five years. However, while this provides plenty of reason for optimism it is likely to be ‘bitter sweet’ for the local economy due to the projected decline in the number of working age people in the region.

“The drop in the size of the available workforce highlights the need for training and skills programmes that not only align with the rapidly-evolving jobs market but also ensure that as many people as possible are able to gain the skills that the local economy will need in the coming years.”

In a recent survey commissioned by Novus, 55% of voters in the UK said that prisons should focus on rehabilitation more than punishment, with 60% of respondents saying that educating prisoners and developing their skills is a good way to use taxpayers money.

However, when told that reoffending costs the economy £18 billion every year according to Ministry of Justice data and that education is proven to reduce reoffending by 7.5 percentage points, support for educating prisoners and developing their skills increased to 68%.

Cox added: “With the Northamptonshire economy facing a potential workforce shortage by 2028, it will become even more critical that offenders have the opportunity to gain the skills that will help ensure that the region can capitalise on the forecasted job market growth to unlock the economic opportunities this presents.”