Alec Swann: Ashes is too close to call
Cricket's biggest rivalry resumes next Wednesday as the Ashes prepares to assume pole position in the sporting world.
Two and a half years after the last instalment – the one nobody mentions because we got hammered 5-0 – England will attempt to replicate what they achieved in 2005.
Whether or not they can match that 2-1 series win will depend on a myriad of factors, but they won't struggle for support.
Tickets for the Tests, despite the over-inflated prices, sold in record time to highlight the interest that the Ashes is capable of generating.
All that we need now is for the actual cricket to match the hype.
Every indication is that it will be a closely fought series.
On paper – never the best place to judge, but what else can you do? – the sides look fairly evenly matched.
Both bowling attacks will fancy their chances of taking 20 wickets in each game, and both batting line-ups will sense an opportunity to score heavily.
And if England are going to triumph, then they need their batting to fire consistently.
In an ideal world, England would want to go into a series with all their specialists in good form.
However, of their batsmen, only Alastair Cook and, to a lesser extent, Kevin Pietersen are in decent form.
A combination of the Twenty20-dominated schedule and a lack of first-class matchpractise could conspire to leave England undercooked going into the first Test next week.
If things don't go to plan for either side, the old excuse of a lack of preparation will be
trundled out, but that is just the way of the cricketing world these days.
One good thing is that England seem to have settled on their batting order.
Michael Vaughan's retirement has put to bed any lingering thoughts that he could make a return, and unless Ian Bell scores a bucketful against the Aussies for England Lions at Worcester this week, there is no-one else to challenge the present incumbents.
The same could be said for Australia, but that is because they have travelled with only six batsmen.
And the one area of concern Australia should have is at number six.
Marcus North looks badly out of touch, Shane Watson's fitness is again a worry and Andrew McDonald isn't a Test match top order batsman.
North looks favourite to start in Cardiff given that he has played in both the warm-up games, but Watson will have designs on his position if he can get on the field.
The lack of a reserve batsman looks to be a glaring oversight, and England will have noted that. Although they bat a long way down, Australia have a weak midriff that could be exploited.
One bonus for the tourists is the return to form of Mike Hussey.
One of the more surprising elements of the Ashes build-up has been, from both sides, the criticism levelled at Hussey.
His 150 at Worcester this week, while far from guaranteeing a place that was already his, was a good indication that Hussey's game is back in working order, a fact that should give England cause for concern.
In fact, Hussey has been a victim of his own success.
To be averaging in the 70s and 80s for so long burdened him with unrealistic expectations that, in all truth, were never going to be met.
Only one man has maintained a stratospheric
average throughout his career and only one man ever will – Don Bradman.
Bowling wise, there will be few surprises.
England could well play two spinners in Cardiff, but they may stick with four seamers.
Either way, if they can get on top of the Australians, and Ricky Ponting in particular, they can dictate terms and that is what wins games.
Four years ago, Lord's apart, England controlled the games and deservedly came out on top.
If they are to claim the urn they need to do the same again.
As for a prediction for the series, my heart says England but my head says draw.
Sitting on the fence it may be, but good weather will allow for result games and two well-matched sides will play out a 2-2 draw.
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Weather for Northampton
Wednesday 08 February 2012
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